Aussies warn of increased conflict in Kashmir

‘Decreased Discharge In Indus River Would Be Bone Of Contention’

Australia’s top intelligence agency has warned of increased future conflict in Kashmir region
between India and Pakistan over the water issue.
The outlook provided by the deputy director of the Australia’s Office of National Assessments (ONA), in a confidential discussion with US embassy officials predicted increased conflict in the
Kashmir region (between India and Pakistan) because of a decrease in flows into the River Indus.
According to a report in Sydney Morning Herald, ONA believes south-east Asia will be the region worst affected by climate change by 2030, with decreased water flows from the Himalayan glaciers triggering a ‘’cascade of economic, social and political consequences and conflicts’’. The cable, obtained by WikiLeaks and released to the Herald, also revealed that internal migrations in multi-ethnic countries may cause more problems than cross-border migration.
ONA assesses information provided by Australia’s other intelligence agencies and advises the Prime Minister on crucial global issues. According to the cable, the effect of climate change in south-east Asia would become serious by 2030 with mounting temperatures.
Pertinently, Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s advisor Sardar Aseff Ali had on January 3, 2010 warned that unresolved water issue could trigger Indo-Pak war.
“The impending issues over sharing river water between India and Pakistan could trigger a war between the two countries,” Sardar Aseff Ali had said. He had even stated that Pakistan could pull out of the Indus Water Treaty with India, “if the latter does not stop violating the treaty by constructing new dams on the Indus River, a move which could greatly affect Pakistan’s water share.” Aseff had said that Islamabad might also take the issue to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the United Nations Security Council.
Around the same time, President Obama’s Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan late Richard Holbrooke had on February 20, 2010 said that Washington is in consultation with India and Pakistan to help both countries resolve water disputes between them.
In an interview with a private television channel, Holbrooke had termed Pakistan’s water crisis as the second most worry for that country after its sagging economy.
“Pakistan’s water crisis is the second most dangerous crisis after its economic turmoil,” The Daily Times had quoted Holbrooke, as saying.
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), inked between India and Pakistan in 1960, provides appointment of a neutral expert by the World Bank as a last option to resolve water related issues between both the countries. BACKGROUND The Indus River is 1975 miles/3180 kilometres in length and originates in western Tibet. It flows through China and Kashmir and then turns south into Pakistan and falls into the Arabian Sea. The partition of the Punjab province had affected the water system of the Indus River and also the five rivers (Chenab, Jhelum, Ravi, Sutlej and Beas) of the Punjab province.
To address its water needs, India in 1950
began to build a canal system that diverted some of the flow from rivers flowing into Pakistan. This led to a serious water dispute between the two countries. Eventually the World Bank and the US brokered the Indus Water Treaty in 1960 which stipulated that Pakistan would receive unrestricted use of the waters of western rivers, - Indus, Jhelum and Chenab while India will have unrestricted rights over the waters of Ravi, Sutlej and Beas.
In December 2001, following the attack on the Indian Parliament, India openly raised the possibility of revoking the 1960
Treaty, as part of a strategy of “coercive diplomacy with Pakistan.” According to observers, if the water- sharing dispute is allowed to fester between the two nations over the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, it could fundamentally transform the Kashmir conflict (the Indus river flows through Kashmir).
Many political observers believe that the Indus Water dispute may end up being the crisis that may finally make that pressure for the rival countries too much to contain.

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