NEW DELHI: Just how badly India underestimated the capacity of Pakistan-based jihadi outfits to combine with Kashmiri separatists -- while also ignoring the growth of local alienation -- comes through in its assessment that the Valley may have turned the corner.
In a February, 2009 cable the US embassy reports that "GOI believes the political and security environment today in Kashmir is such that the state could be poised for a sustained period of reconciliation and prosperity."
The Indian government believed that "Kashmiris have rejected the agendas of the Pakistani jihadis and Kashmiri separatists, and are now ready to turn the page away from violence and are seeking good governance and normalisation." The Indians were "particularly elated" by a high turnout, low violence election in J&K.
The assessment ascribed to the government with regard to the new chief minister Omar Abdullah is equally misplaced. The cable said "With Omar Abdullah as chief minister, they have in place a young, forward thinking leader who could move the state out of its two decades of political paralysis."
The US embassy does point out that "It is not clear, however, that the GOI has the political will to make the kinds of gestures -- such as reduction of security forces footprint -- that Kashmiris need to gain some confidence in the Indian intentions."
Even though the Indian assessment is clearly offered immediately after the National Conference-Congress won the election, the view turned out to be rather rosy as Abdullah failed to understand that the separatists-jihadi block was just waiting for him slip -- an opening he provided by making himself remote from the popular mood.
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